Net Connections and Speculation on the Future

Net Connections:

Phone line -- Downoad:14,400 to 53,000 bits per second.. Upload: 14,400 to 33,600.
Requires: Phone line and modem..$

ISDN (Integrated Services Digital Network) Speed: 64,000 to 128,00 bps..
Requires: ISDN Modem and ISDN Phone Line.$$

UHF (Based Wireless Internet Access)Download: 256,000 to 1.54 million. Upload: 14,400 to 53,000 with modem/phone line; 64,000 to 128,00 with ISDN.
Requires: Special UHF reciever and antenna and either a modem/phone line or ISDN modem/ISDN Line.$$$

DirecPC (Satellite Based Internet Access)Download: 1.54 million bps. Upload 14,400 to 33,600 bps using modem/phone line.
Requires: Satellelite Recieving Equipment and dish and modem/phone line.$$

ADSL (Assymmetriacl Digital Subscriber Lines)Download 384,00 to 6 million bps. Upload: 128,000 to 384,000 bps.
Requires Special ADSL phone line and Special modem. $$

Cable Internet Access.Download: 27 Million bps. Upload: 784,000 bps.
Requires: cable connection and special cable modem. $$

T1Speed 1.544million bps.. One T1 line equals 24 64,000 bps phone lines, 24 DS0's or 1 DS0.
Requires: The T1 line and special router equipment..$$$$

T1CSpeed 3.152 million bps. One T1C equals 2 T1's, 48 64,000 bps phone lines, 48 DS0's or 1 DS1.
Requires: The T1C line and special router equipment..$$$$$

T2Speed 6.312 million bps. One T2 equals 2 T1C's, 96 64,000 bps phone lines, 96 DS0's or 1 DS2.
Requires: The T2 line and special router equipment..$$$$$$

T3Speed 44.736 million bps. One T3 equals 7 T2's, 672 64,000 bps phone lines, 672 DS0's or 1 DS3.
Requires: The T3 line and special router equipment..$$$$$$$

T4Speed 274.176 million bps. One T4 equals 6 T3's, 4032 64,000 bps phone lines, 4032 DS0's or 1 DS4.
Requires: The T4 line and special router equipment..$$$$$$$$

Speculation on the Future:

Observation 1 -- Access speed is going up to keep up with the larger and larger graphic downloads. More users are migrating to ISDN.
Deployment of richer graphics web sites is hindered by download speeds.

Observation 2 -- Cable Internet Access is the only Internet Access that does not require a Telephone Company Connection.
No wonder AT&T bought TCI. AT&T now has network trunks, satellites and cable connections for phone, TV and Internet.

Observation 3 -- Base cable connection costs are about the same as for a phone connection.

 

Scenario 1 -- Growth rate of dialup phone and ISDN connections slowing from 1999 on with a gradual then a mass migration to cable connection from late 2000 on.. With more users on cable connection, TV broadcast channels will have hyperlinks for more info during the broadcast. Home shopping will grow as purchasers will click on and purchase on line..More small home/business/non-profit web servers connecting to the cable and not through a local ISP. Many more live cams. More live/visual phone calls over the Internet and less through the local analog phones. More live porn channels. More live meetings. With dwindling dialup connections, surviving small to mediium ISP's will change their revenue chain to providing more specialized web service such as database and secure online data transactions, mail and news service. More and more transactions and bill paying will be done on line.. More cable and phone company mergers. ISP's merging with other companies. Whole cable channels will be for Internet only, (say channnel 99 for MSN network, channel 101 for Neosoft or channel 43 for AccelerNet Network) Eventually, TVs and VCRs will come not only cable ready but Internet ready. Limiting this Scenario: The only limit is the inability of the cable companies to provide the necessary support and/or regulation from government or lack of IP's.

Scenario 2 -- Growth rate of dialup phones slows amid competition among ISPs and with more users adding ISDN connections. In 1999 and on more users will migrate to ADSL with their ISP being their phone company. More ISP's merging. More ISP's turning away from dialup sales for their main profit and to specialized services such as secure payments, web hosting, database, mail and news services for their main income. Limiting this Scenario: The price and availability of ADSL, the ability of the cable companies to provide the necessary Internet cable support and lack of tight government regulation .

Maintained by R. David Decker
Last Updated on Monday, 14-Jun-1999 17:10:15 CDT