Speculating on where goes the Internet can be fun and helpful in planning for the future... So here goes..
2002 to about 2015...
Most homes and business will connect by cable modems. Some will have two or more cables coming into the home as we at present have two or more phone lines for homes and business.
Some will still use phone lines, ISDN and ADSL for personal use - mainly as a personal choice, redundancy, for security, inertia, and for lack of cable connections.
Many homes and most businesses will have a local network connecting their PCs, faxes, telephones, TVs, security systems, and some appliances. Their local network will connect to the Internet through a cable modem/router.
Companies, schools, small businesses and even families will link their computers via the internet in a Virtual Private Network (VPN).. Using fast, cheap and reliable Internet connections, a computer in New York City can appear to be connected to the same Local Area Network (LAN) as the computer in the next room, a neighboring desk or in Los Angeles.
Most telephones will connect via packet switching or something similar instead of the present line switching. Most will pay a flat rate for usage with possible surcharges for use beyond a certain amount. A person may be contacted by calling a number or possibly a domain name. A phone number or domain name may be tied to a particular device and not location, as is done on cellular phones today.
Using a domain name for calling could offer some interesting options.. Using aliases to call a person or department that could change who gets the call but not the name to call.
Phones and computers will merge to offer visual pictures and onscreen help and information.. This is already happening in limited ways. Faster data connections that cable can provide will help stimulate the video conferences that is difficult to do in todays slow connections.
Television and the computer will merge.. The moving image of television and the choices offered by a computer on the Internet will merge to give the ability to click on hyperlinks on the nightly news, Monday Night Football, Infomercials and more..
Imagine being able to click on a hyperlink to instantly get a replay or a replay from earlier in the game or a previous game.. Click on another on screen hyperlink and get info on a particular player or the visual replays of their past best or worst games. It will be a sports junkie's paradise. Click on the betting link for on screen secured betting. Click on another hyperlink for tickets, bios on the players, coaches, referees and cheerleaders.
Shopping Networks will become more like an online catalog where a person can view, listen to the pitch, place a secure order, and check their order status by clicking on screen hyperlinks.
Almost anyone will be able to be a TV station as a present anyone can be a publisher on the Internet. A video camera, computer and fast connection to the net that cable will offer means that more people can do a "Waynes World" type TV station. Schools or organizations can have their plays, performances, meetings, sports meets and more on line and viewed by anyone with a fast internet connection. This also means more porno offerings and hate group propaganda broadcast on the Internet.
There will be increased posturing by those who seek to censor and those who seek to protect First Amendment Rights.
Video and music rentals/purchases are/will be made over the Internet.. Click on a hyperlink, and make a secure on line purchase and download the movie or music cd while watching the movie, music video or TV show. Note that the New Starwars Episode One is to be digitally downloaded to 4 test theaters in the spring of 1999.
Microsoft has taken a lead in providing many of the tools and software necessary for the combining the Internet and the TV with their WebTV.. Windows 98 comes with Web TV for Windows.. Following their guidelines, TV shows, adds, news and more can and have been made with on screen hyperlinks that either provide the information for the links from the broadcast or link to a site on the internet.
For most current ISPs their main income source will change from providing Internet Access to providing Internet Services such as web hosting, email, secure online purchasing, and clients co-located servers (COLAs).
Actual internet connections will be through a few large mega providers such as the mergers and working agreements of cable companies and backbone phone providers.. A good example is AT&T merger with TCI and working agreements with Time Warner Cable. Would look for Disney, Microsoft, AOL and others to continue looking for mergers or working agreements to provide access, content and support service from one vendor. Disney/Go/ABC/ESPN - Microsoft/MSNBC/NBC/MSN/WebTV/Comcast - AOL/Netscape/CompuServe/ICQ/eBay
Current ISPs will still provide connections to the net via dialup phone, ISDN and ADSL for specialized customers, for security needs, and for those not on cable connections.
There will be a need for more and faster web, video and mail servers with the increased net traffic brought by faster connections and more users. Companies and organizations will want their own server connected to the Internet backbone to provide faster service for their customers and clients. They will upload their video, sound, graphics and other fast changing information to their COLA server. Remember that on Internet connections, downloads are generally lots faster than uploads. So if they host their own server, their customers/clients will be limited by the upload speed from server to the Backbone.. If they first upload to a COLA on a fast connection to the Internet Backbone, then the customer/client will be limited by the download speed from the Internet Backbone to the customer/client..
R. David Decker
This was last modified on Tuesday, 01-Jun-1999 10:55:06 CDT